Introduction to Demographic Theories, Global Human Capital and Social Change
The lecture is offered in the winter semester as part of the Master's Programme “Global Demography” at the University of Vienna.
Course Description
Aims:
This lecture provides an introduction to the principles and basic foundations of the discipline of demography. It will familiarize the participants with the history of demography as well as the basic concepts and approaches that distinguish demography from other social sciences. There will be a focus on genuine demographic theories that have predictive power. This will be illustrated in applications to the modeling and forecasting of global human capital (population structures by age, sex and level of education) as well as other structural social changes that happen primarily through inter-generational replacement. After successfully completing this course, the participants will be equipped with a sound foundation in demographic thinking and its application to many of the pressing issues of our times.
Contents:
It starts with a focus on concepts of cohort versus period analysis and introduces some basic demographic concepts and methods such as the stable population and the life table. Next it will introduce three demographic theories that have predictive power, namely the theory of demographic metabolism, the theory of demographic transition and the theory of a demographic dividend. Examples and applications of all three theories will be given and the state of knowledge on the drivers of the global mortality and fertility declines will be discussed. The lecture will also cover trends in migration and human capital formation as well as the processes of changing population age structures. It will introduce different approaches to multi-dimensional population forecasting and illustrate them with alternative scenarios on world population and global human capital over the 21st century.
Method(s):
Since this is a lecture course, most of the information will be communicated in the form of lectures. The content will to a large extent follow the book Advanced Introduction to Demography by Wolfgang Lutz. Other readings will be assigned during the course. In every session there will also be question and answer sections as well as structured discussions.
Click here for the current schedule and room information for the lecture
This lecture provides an introduction to the principles and basic foundations of the discipline of demography. It will familiarize the participants with the history of demography as well as the basic concepts and approaches that distinguish demography from other social sciences. There will be a focus on genuine demographic theories that have predictive power. This will be illustrated in applications to the modeling and forecasting of global human capital (population structures by age, sex and level of education) as well as other structural social changes that happen primarily through inter-generational replacement. After successfully completing this course, the participants will be equipped with a sound foundation in demographic thinking and its application to many of the pressing issues of our times.
Contents:
It starts with a focus on concepts of cohort versus period analysis and introduces some basic demographic concepts and methods such as the stable population and the life table. Next it will introduce three demographic theories that have predictive power, namely the theory of demographic metabolism, the theory of demographic transition and the theory of a demographic dividend. Examples and applications of all three theories will be given and the state of knowledge on the drivers of the global mortality and fertility declines will be discussed. The lecture will also cover trends in migration and human capital formation as well as the processes of changing population age structures. It will introduce different approaches to multi-dimensional population forecasting and illustrate them with alternative scenarios on world population and global human capital over the 21st century.
Method(s):
Since this is a lecture course, most of the information will be communicated in the form of lectures. The content will to a large extent follow the book Advanced Introduction to Demography by Wolfgang Lutz. Other readings will be assigned during the course. In every session there will also be question and answer sections as well as structured discussions.
Click here for the current schedule and room information for the lecture
Minimum Requirements and Assessment Criteria
At the end of the course there will be one comprehensive in-room exam.
- Maximum number of points that can be achieved: 100.
- Minimum requirement for a positive result: 50 points
- 100 - 89 percent: Grade 1
- 88 - 76 percent: Grade 2
- 75 - 63 percent: Grade 3
- 62 - 50 percent: Grade 4
- Under 50 percent: Grade 5
- Basic demographic concepts
- The stable population model
- The life table model
- The theory of demographic metabolism
- The theory of demographic transition
- The theory of a demographic dividend
- Drivers of mortality decline
- Drivers of fertility decline
- Different approaches to population forecasting
- Population scenarios by level of education
- Aging, dependency ratios and migration
- Population and sustainable development
World population by age, sex and education in 1950 (left graph) and 2025 (right graph)
